Bitcoin (BTC) sellers may not have surrendered enough, but the current trend is “typical” of the end of a bear market.
according to data According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, seller behavior suggests that a macro price bottom is forming.
Analyst: Seller exhaustion ‘near’ bear market low
In the latest hint that Bitcoin’s latest bear market is coming to an end, Glassnode has revealed that the network is currently weathering a “perfect storm” of low volatility and high on-chain losses.
Therefore, the seller exhaustion constant calculated from the monthly rolling volatility and on-chain transaction profitability is itself at a long-term low.
as a twitter post I will explain, such lows are rare, having appeared only seven times so far. Six of them saw upward volatility, suggesting that Bitcoin may soon end its bearish trend.
“Bitcoin’s seller depletion constant hits its lowest point since November 2018,” Glassnode commented.
In the ensuing discussion, lead on-chain analyst Checkmate explained The data are “typical” of a bear market, adding that such levels are “near lows.”
The Seller Exhaustion Constant was first created by ARK Invest and David Puell, who are responsible for the popular Puell Multiple indicator.
ARK analyst Yassine Elmandjra said, “The seller depletion constant, shown below, is the percentage profit of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin multiplied by the volatility of the last 30 days.” explained in an article last year.
“This indicator measures whether two factors are aligned. Specifically, a combination of low volatility and high losses is associated with capitulation, complacency, and Bitcoin price bottoming.”
not enough yet
Nonetheless, additional data on unspent transaction output (UTXO) shows that current levels of BTC that have moved onto the chain with losses do not align with past bear market bottoms.
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As of October 29, the latest date for which statistics are available, 75% of UTXOs were profitable. This is in stark contrast to late 2018, when the aggregate was well below 50%.
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