Despite the recessionary trend in the global economy, new demand, mainly from China, is expected to keep most commodity prices above pre-COVID levels.
Global steel prices rose more than 50% in FY’22, according to Crisil Economic Research, released Thursday. This is driven by sharp increases in the price of coking coal, a key raw material.
According to the report, flat steel prices are expected to remain high in FY2024 on the back of high input costs. Domestic prices are expected to rise again amid a new wave of supply disruptions in Australia. Despite the successive declines, steel prices continue to rise and are expected to be almost 1.3 times higher than in 2019.
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Cement prices increased by 4% in the previous financial year and 3% in 2024, mainly due to a 150-170% increase in petroleum coke and coal inputs.
Driven by higher raw material prices and stable demand, cement prices are expected to remain range-bound for fiscal 2024, but almost 1.2 times their pre-pandemic levels, the company said.
Aluminum prices rose almost 52% in the last financial year, driven by higher coal prices and strong demand. Prices are expected to rise modestly in FY24 due to healthy demand from the power and automotive segments. However, stable supply from China is expected to limit price increases. Prices should remain nearly 20% higher than his 2019 levels.
Healthy downstream demand to support higher copper prices next year, although supply is expected to improve. Prices are expected to hold at almost 1.56x pre-corona levels as copper supplies continue to be tight.
Oil prices will average $82-$87 a barrel in 2023, despite OPEC supply cuts being a key development to watch.
The Russia-Ukraine region, which accounts for 10% of total annual crude oil production, has pushed energy commodity prices to 10-year highs, with oil prices above $120 a barrel since 2008.
However, oil prices are expected to correct around 15-17% year-on-year in 2023. Key global economic slowdowns and restructuring of global supply chains are expected to weigh on prices, according to Crisil Research.
Thermal coal prices have soared on the back of gas shortages in the EU over the past two years, leading to a 180% year-on-year price increase. Prices are expected to fall about 34% in he 2023 as supply improves and a harsh winter eases.
Coking coal prices surged last year due to supply constraints and geopolitical issues between Australia and China.
The resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war is expected to ease prices by 24% this year, while weather disruptions in Australia will keep prices at 1.6 times their pre-coronavirus levels, says Crisil Research. increase.