The shocks that have rocked the global economy in recent years have brought about a new normal of turbulence, in some cases caused by political divisions between nations.These episodes have also raised uncertainty to very high levels. , which has a negative impact on economic growth.
research indicate.
To better track the evolution of these conditions,
Global Uncertainty Index It displays more frequent measurements monthly rather than quarterly and incorporates data for 71 economies dating back to 2008.
As chart of the week As shown, the index fell in its most recent measurement in December, but has continued to reach high levels more recently against the backdrop of a series of shocks, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying cost of living crisis. increase.
Our approach uses text analysis of reports by the Economist Intelligence Unit. This allows us to classify sources of uncertainty by analyzing words published in close proximity to the mention of uncertainty. We believe this is the first attempt to produce a text-based monthly uncertainty measure that covers a large number of developing countries and is comparable across countries.
The second slide of the interactive chart breaks down the composition of references to uncertainty related to trade, the pandemic, spillovers from major economies and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
This shows how drivers have evolved. Uncertainty spiked after the UK’s unexpected vote to leave the EU and even more so after the unexpected outcome of the 2016 US presidential election. This was followed by trade tensions between the US and China, creating great uncertainty around the world.
The novel coronavirus pandemic hit in early 2020, followed by another major surge, and less than two years later, another shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and new trade uncertainty related to trade risks. sex continued.
geo-economic fragmentation.
