Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a downtrend for over a year since its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
BTC’s price performance has caused investors to lose up to 77%, but how much will BTC/USD really lose?
Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 will be the year of the biggest cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.
Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro data show BTC/USD has seen little relief after starting the year at all-time highs around $46,000, a level not seen since November 2020. back to TradingView confirm.
This put Bitcoin in the bottom region of a historic bear market. Having fallen by as much as about 77% from its most recent peak, Bitcoin may have little room left for the downside.
However, this time may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what the most popular crypto market commentators think about where Bitcoin will bottom out.
CryptoBullet: A “Comfort Buy” Around $16,000
One well-known social media personality is sticking with the early 2022 theory. It’s all about one specific on-chain metric.
For CryptoBullet, the Destroyed Cumulative Days of Value (CVDD) still provides key insight into BTC’s macro price trough.
CVDD basically counts the number of “holding” days accumulated when coins are moved to a new wallet. This is expressed as the ratio of the overall market age divided by 6 million, according to the analytical resource Woobull I will explain is the “calibration factor”.
Looking back, CVDD has acted as a key line in the sand, and if it’s the same this time around, BTC/USD may already offer buyers the best profit opportunities.
According to Woobull, CVDD is currently around $15,900.
“Buy Bitcoin with Confidence Here at CVDD” CryptoBullet Said Twitter followers on November 26th.
“Can we go lower? Of course we can. If another crypto company goes bankrupt or something like that, $BTC will drop below CVDD, but not by much. Most of the downtrend is over.”
Filbfilb: $6,500 as a “worst case scenario”
Crypto market veterans are constantly reassessing how bad this bear market will be.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could hit $10,000 around the new year if macro conditions worsen.
But that was before the FTX debacle, and the resulting added fuel to the bear market fire prompted him to reconsider.
Filbfilb outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms in a livestream with fellow co-founder Philip Swift.
However, these vary. A large “ladder” of bids is just below the spot price, focused on $12,000 to $14,000. At the same time, the ultimate support could go as low as $6,000.
Filbfilb further pointed out that black swan events such as further cryptocurrency bankruptcies could trigger a spike through the upper support field, opening up the next possibility below $10,000.
But under the current circumstances, a trip to the $6,000 zone is “unlikely,” he advised.
$14,000 prize pool gets a lot of attention
Filbfilb’s upper band of bid support for exchange order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.
Related: Will Bitcoin Reach $110,000 in 2023? 3 Reasons to Be Bullish on BTC Now
As reported by Cointelegraph, $14,000 is currently a key spot on the radar, with entries around that already planned.
That area will also result in BTC/USD losses all-time high Similar to previous bear markets.
Not only that, but trader and analyst Rekt Capital has $13,900 forming a critical support line on a one-week timeframe, which has yet to be tested from the second half of 2020.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views or opinions of Cointelegraph.