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Two stock market stats giving investors some hope this fall: Morning Brief

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This article first appeared in Morning Brief. Get Morning His Briefs sent straight to your inbox every Monday-Friday by 6:30am ET. apply

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results” may be the most repeated disclaimer in the financial services industry.

This is a warning to investors not to get too excited about what they think is a repeat of past patterns. Because often history doesn’t repeat itself.

That said, if history is anything to go by, the fall of 2022 could see the S&P 500 fall about 25% from its January 3rd high to its October 12th low, over a period of several months. Selling may end.

“More major market troughs occurred in October than any other month,” said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. noticed last month.

chart like below From Jeff Hirsch of Almanac Traderwidely distributed on social media.

Image: Stock Trader’s Almanac

“Not all indices bottomed out on the same day in all bear markets, but the largest share, or bearish share, bottomed out in October.” Hirsch wrote.

Another impressive stat that has been communicated is the performance of stocks before and after the midterm elections.

“[T]The S&P 500 has risen in all 19 midterm election years since World War II, and not a single one has seen a negative return,” said Deutsche Bank’s global head of credit strategy. Jim Reed, who is observed last week.

Image: Bloomberg Finance and Deutsche Bank

Image: Bloomberg Finance and Deutsche Bank

This year’s pivotal November 8th election could end with Democrats losing control of the Senate and/or House, making it more likely that few new laws will be passed in a traffic jam. increase. Ironically, stagnation is often considered bullish for stocks because it removes some of the political uncertainty.

Again, none of this means that the market is certain to start a sustained rally this fall. Especially this year was an unusual year. The Federal Reserve is clearly beating the market Efforts to curb inflation.When Inflation remains high.

As market veteran Sam Stovall often say“History is a great guide, but it is not the gospel.”

Today’s newsletter Sam Lawthe author of TKer.coFollow him on Twitter. @ SamuroRead this and other market news on the go Yahoo finance app.

what to see today


  • 9:15 AM ET: industrial productionm/m, Sep (0.1% forecast, -0.2% m/m)

  • 9:15 AM ET: Capacity utilizationSeptember (80.0% forecast, 80.0% last month)

  • 9:15 AM ET: Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionSeptember (0.2% forecast, 0.1% last month)

  • 10:00 AM EST: NAHB Housing Market IndexOct (forecast 43, previous month 46)

  • 4:00 PM ET: Net long-term TIC outflowAugust ($21.4 billion last month)

  • 4:00 PM ET: Total Net TIC OutflowAugust ($153.5 billion last month)

  • 10/18-10/21: monthly budget statementSeptember (-$128bn expected vs -$64.9bn the previous month)


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